As Goes January, So Goes the Year?

As investors ring in the new year, some may see the occasional headline about the “January Indicator” or “January Barometer.”

This theory suggests that the price movement of the S&P 500 during the month of January may signal whether that index will rise or fall during the remainder of the year. In other words, if the return of the S&P 500 in January is negative, this would supposedly foreshadow a fall for the stock market for the remainder of the year, and vice versa if returns in January are positive.

As Goes January So Goes the Year_DFA

So, have past Januarys’ S&P 500 returns been a reliable indicator for what the rest of the year has in store? If returns in January are negative, should investors sell stocks? The chart below shows the monthly returns of the S&P 500 Index for each January since 1926, compared to the subsequent 11-month return (i.e., the return from February through December). A negative return in January was followed by a positive 11-month return about 60% of the time, with an average return during those 11 months of around 7%.

This data suggests there may be an opportunity cost for abandoning equity markets after a disappointing January. Take 2016, for example: The return of the S&P 500 during the first two weeks of this year was the worst on record for that period, at -7.93%. Even with positive returns toward the end of the month, the S&P 500 returned -4.96% in January 2016, the ninth-worst January return observed from 1926 to 2017. But a subsequent rebound of 18% from February to December resulted in a total-calendar-year return of almost 13%.

An investor reacting to January’s performance by selling out of stocks would have missed out on the gains experienced by investors who stuck with equities for the whole year. This is a good example of the potential negative outcomes that can result from following investment recommendations based on an “indicator.”

January Return vs. Subsequent 11-Month Return of the S&P 500 Index

1926-2017

January Returns
Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. In US dollars. S&P 500 Index data provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

Over the long term, the financial markets have rewarded investors. People expect a positive return on the capital they supply, and historically, the equity and bond markets have provided meaningful growth of wealth.

As investors prepare for 2018 and what the year may bring, we should remember that frequent changes to an investment strategy can hurt performance. Rather than trying to beat the market based on hunches, headlines or indicators, investors who remain disciplined can let markets work for them over time.

 

Historical returns of indices do not reflect applicable transaction, management or other applicable fees, the incurrence of which would decrease historical performance results. Index information has been compiled by Hewins from sources Hewins deems reliable, but has not been independently verified. Historical performance results for investment indices and/or categories have been provided for general comparison purposes only. Any represented herein are for informational purposes only and cannot in and of themselves be used to determine which securities to purchase or sell, or when to purchase or sell securities.

Dimensional Fund Advisors
Dimensional Fund Advisors

DFA is an Austin-based asset manager whose philosophy and mutual funds are a cornerstone of our investment approach. With three Nobel laureates on its board, a scientific priority runs deep through Dimensional, with a high regard for research, process and time-tested data. Dimensional’s process explores every aspect of dynamic real-world markets, including portfolio architecture, trading methodology and tax management. Hewins and Dimensional are not affiliated entities.

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As Goes January, So Goes the Year?

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